What are my H-1B lottery odds
Built from USCIS official registration and selection counts, it gives a range for your case — with the numerator and denominator shown, never a single number.
—
Evidence
What this number does not cover
- This is the chance of being selected, not of getting the visa. After selection you must still file and be approved.
- USCIS publishes only totals, never rates by degree, country or occupation. Any "you are XX%" figure is a model, and is labelled as one here.
- FY 2027 counts are not published yet, so the FY 2027 figures are a model anchored on FY 2026, not a measurement.
This page is a mechanical conversion and model estimate from public official data. It is not legal advice and promises no outcome.
The two cap pools
Regular cap · 65,000
Open to every applicant, including U.S. advanced-degree holders.
U.S. advanced-degree cap · 20,000
Only U.S. master’s or higher. Drawn separately from the regular cap.
65,000 regular cap plus a separate 20,000 U.S. advanced-degree exemption (the master's cap). Both are statutory.
Official history (FY 2021–FY 2026)
| FY | Total registrations | Eligible registrations | Selected registrations | Selection rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2021 | 274,237 | 269,424 | 124,415 | 45.4% – 46.2% |
| FY 2022 | 308,613 | 301,447 | 131,924 | 42.7% – 43.8% |
| FY 2023 | 483,927 | 474,421 | 127,600 | 26.4% – 26.9% |
| FY 2024 | 780,884 | 758,994 | 188,400 | 24.1% – 24.8% |
| FY 2025 | 479,953 | 470,342 | 135,137 | 28.2% – 28.7% |
| FY 2026 | 358,737 | 343,981 | 120,141 | 33.5% – 34.9% |
Rate range = selected ÷ total registrations (lower) and ÷ eligible registrations (upper). Both denominators are official. Source: USCIS — H-1B Electronic Registration Process (FY 2021–FY 2026 registration and selection counts), page last reviewed 2026-09-21.
From FY 2027: weighted lottery
From FY 2027 the lottery is weighted by the highest OEWS wage level the beneficiary's offered salary equals or exceeds: Level I = 1 entry, II = 2, III = 3, IV = 4 (90 FR 60864, effective 2026-02-27; first applied in FY 2027). Selection is still by unique beneficiary and without replacement, so extra registrations for the same person do not stack.
| Wage level of your offered salary | Entries |
|---|---|
| Level I | 1 entries |
| Level II | 2 entries |
| Level III | 3 entries |
| Level IV | 4 entries |
From FY 2025, selection is beneficiary-centric: multiple registrations for the same person collapse into a single lottery chance, and once selected all of that person's registrations are selected. Duplicate registrations therefore no longer raise the odds.