Two charts, do not mix them up

The U.S. Department of State publishes a Visa Bulletin each month with two charts. The Final Action Dates chart decides when a green card can be approved; the Dates for Filing chart decides when an I-485 can be filed. Consular processing only ever follows Final Action. Whether adjustment of status may use the Dates for Filing chart is designated separately by USCIS each month.

How the decoder computes

The decoder does not predict. It converts: take the cut-off for your category and country of birth from the current bulletin and compare it with your priority date. Earlier than the cut-off means you may move forward; later means we show the gap. The three-state answer follows directly.

The three-state answer is a pure comparison: take the cut-off for your category and country of birth from the current bulletin and compare it with your priority date. Earlier → you may move forward; later → the gap in years and months; C → current; U → unavailable this month.

The "how many periods" formula (both ends use published official values only):

optimistic periods = ceil(gap in days ÷ fastest single advance in the last 12 periods)
pessimistic periods = ceil(gap in days ÷ median single advance in the last 12 periods)
no net advance in the last 12 periods -> no range is given

The site carries 13 consecutive official periods (2025-10 through 2026-10); the step-by-step differences come from those.

What the "already filed" switch does: filed → you are waiting for approval, so Final Action Dates govern; not filed → adjustment of status follows the chart USCIS designates this month, consular processing follows Final Action Dates.

The lottery-odds model and formula

Measured part: the rate range is selected ÷ total registrations (lower) and ÷ eligible registrations (upper). Numerator and denominator are USCIS published counts, checkable cell by cell.

The split by degree is a model (USCIS publishes no per-degree data). The formula:

Selections split by cap share:
  S_reg = S × 65,000 ÷ 85,000
  S_adv = S × 20,000 ÷ 85,000

Bachelor's (regular pool only):  p = S_reg ÷ E
U.S. advanced degree (drawn in both pools):
  p = 1 - (1 - S_reg ÷ E) × (1 - S_adv ÷ (a × E))
  a = assumed share of advanced-degree registrations, swept over 25%-45%

Weighted lottery (FY 2027+):  p' = p × (level ÷ 2.0)
  level = 1-4 for Level I-IV; 2.0 is the assumed average level

Both a and the average level are model assumptions that no agency publishes. That is why the tool always outputs a range, labelled as a model estimate.

How the wage level is determined

Wage levels are published annually by the U.S. DOL OFLC from OEWS data (this is Wage Year 2026–27, effective 2026-07-01). The file gives hourly Level I–IV wages per area × SOC code; this tool annualises at 2,080 hours. This site bundles 40 metro areas and 50 occupations; the full 164 metros and 746 occupations are in the official OFLC Wage Search.

How the EB-1A self-check scores

The ten criteria come verbatim from 8 CFR 204.5(h)(3). The satisfied count is the number of "yes" answers; the weighted score is Σ(weight × satisfaction), with "partly" counting 0.5. The regulation requires only three, and a final merits determination still applies.

The regulation requires meeting at least three of the ten criteria. The "weight" column is our own 1–3 heuristic to help you prioritise; it is not a USCIS standard and does not represent approval odds.

Sources and verification

Cut-off dates come from the DOS Visa Bulletin; which chart applies comes from USCIS; H-1B fees come from Federal Register rule text. Every figure carries a source link and an update date. Unverified data stays marked pending and is never filled with a guess.

• U.S. Department of State — Visa Bulletin For October 2026 — Visa Bulletin (monthly)
• USCIS — Adjustment of Status Filing Charts from the Visa Bulletin — Which chart applies this month
• USCIS — H-1B Electronic Registration Process (FY 2021–FY 2026 registration and selection counts) — H-1B registration and selection counts
• DOL OFLC — OFLC Wage Data Downloads, Wage Year 2026–27 (OEWS-based, All Industries) — Prevailing wage levels
• eCFR — 8 CFR 204.5(h)(3) — EB-1A ten criteria
• Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions (90 FR 60864) — Weighted-selection rule from FY 2027
• Fee for Certain H-1B Petitions (proposed) (91 FR 54817) — H-1B fee rule
• 9-11 Response and Biometric Entry-Exit Fee (91 FR 51360) — H-1B fee rule

Why no predictions

Dates advance and retrogress. A forecast like "you will wait X more years" invites major decisions based on an uncertain number. This site states the current facts and publishes its uncertainties.

Update cadence

After each monthly bulletin (around the 8th–10th business day) the current values are entered by hand and this page is updated. Entry is done from the official PDF, with a screenshot archived.

Disclaimer

This is not a government website and is not affiliated with DOS, USCIS, or DHS.

This is not legal advice. We do not provide immigration advice or legal opinions; consult a licensed immigration attorney about your case.

All computation happens in your browser; nothing is uploaded.